Moon Hong-cheol, Seong Sang-hyeon, and Kim Kwang-seok: "Liquidity-driven market will arrive after midterms or in the era of fiscal dominance"

In September 2026, various perspectives are intersecting among experts regarding the future direction of liquidity flows. Amidst increased volatility in AI-related big tech and semiconductor stocks, an in-depth discussion was held regarding the timing of the arrival of a liquidity-driven market and its primary drivers.

"A good period will come after Halloween following the midterms"

According to the 'Let's Debate with the Man Who Reads the Economy' video from the channel The Man Who Explains the Economy (Kim Kwang-seokTV), team leader Moon Hong-cheol diagnosed the current market situation as a 'preparation period for recovery.' Moon analyzed, "AI stocks are underperforming compared to the S&P, and domestic semiconductor stocks are also struggling due to the shock," adding, "Since there was a supply and demand shock, time is needed to build up for a recovery."

Moon pointed to 'after the midterms' as a specific timing. He forecasted, "Until the midterms, a liquidity-driven market will not arrive, and instead, it may be a time of biased movements," and "I believe a good period may arrive after October 30, when Halloween ends after the midterms are over." Regarding the AI industry in particular, he mentioned the possibility of improvement next year and the year after, stating, "It is still too early for AI to be over."

Additionally, Moon mentioned market position movements in relation to recent negative sentiment toward AI stocks. He explained, "I got the feeling that some hedge funds might have taken short positions," and noted that the movements of short sellers targeting the positions of specific funds, along with interest rate and cash flow issues, are acting as factors pressuring the market. In the video, he cited the case of the Leopold Fund, which used enormous leverage in memory, mentioning a situation where Wall Street players look into the positions exposed through prime brokerages and execute aggressive short selling. Moon analyzed that this trend is pressuring the market in conjunction with news such as rising interest rates or worsening cash flows.

"Possibility of liquidity drivers expanding from the Federal Reserve to the private sector and commercial banks"

Writer Seong Sang-hyeon presented a new liquidity supply route different from the existing quantitative easing model. Seong analyzed, "While quantitative easing in the past was mostly driven by the Federal Reserve, in this cycle, there is a possibility that the entity releasing liquidity will expand from the Federal Reserve to the private sector, namely commercial banks."

He believed that even if the central bank conducts quantitative tightening (QT), the market may not shrink. Seong explained, "Even if the central bank moves toward reducing assets, rather than the market shrinking like in the past, there is a possibility that total liquidity could increase as private liquidity expands." In particular, he noted the recent phenomenon where AI companies are receiving a lot of loans from the shadow banking sector, paying attention to the increase in private liquidity through various channels beyond traditional banks.

"Prospect of the arrival of the 'Era of Fiscal Dominance' led by fiscal power"

Professor Kim Kwang-seok presented a differentiated view by emphasizing 'fiscal power' among the three pillars of liquidity (monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the private side). Kim predicted that a liquidity-driven market would already begin in September and October.

Kim argued, "From a monetary policy perspective, the Federal Reserve will maintain a freeze stance that is neither accommodative nor restrictive, but liquidity will be secured significantly through fiscal power." He expressed this as the 'Era of Fiscal Dominance,' explaining that liquidity could be supplied under a principle similar to how the government organizes a large-scale budget even if the Bank of Korea raises interest rates.

Regarding the situation in the United States, he emphasized the influence of fiscal policy on the market, stating, "The U.S. government's fiscal surplus is by (soon/directly) private liquidity." He also mentioned the U.S. debt issue, adding an explanation to the effect that while mainstream U.S. media finds it easy to argue for a crisis based on the debt issue, one should not overlook the actual power that the government's fiscal policy exerts on the market. In conclusion, the three presenters agreed on the need to closely watch the inflection points of the future market, presenting different perspectives on the timing and drivers of the liquidity-driven market: 'after the midterms,' 'private expansion,' and 'fiscal-led,' respectively.