"The Last Stage is the Steepest"... Amid AI Bubble Debates, Attention Must Be Paid to 'Bottlenecks'

Amid continuous controversy surrounding the AI (Artificial Intelligence) bubble, an analysis has emerged stating that the current market situation should be defined as a 'bubble accompanied by technological innovation' and that response strategies must be sought. It suggests that even if an AI bubble exists, the timing of its collapse is more likely to be determined by rapid changes in the macroeconomic environment rather than flaws in the technology itself.

AI Bubble: 'Mean Reversion Type' or 'Bottleneck Bubble'?

According to the '21st-Century Investing' book review video by Lee Hyo-seok released on the YouTube channel 'The Man Who Explains the Economy (Kim Kwang-seok TV)', the participant expressed the view regarding the AI bubble theory that "the bubble may burst, but it could be due to changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as treasury yields exceeding 5% or the intensification of geopolitical crises, rather than a problem with AI itself." This explains that it possesses the character of a 'bottleneck bubble' that appears during the process of AI technology changing the world.

The video compared the past Dot-com bubble with the current AI market and presented two scenarios. The first scenario is the perspective that 'there are still a few years left.' The analysis suggests that the role played by Cisco, which had solid performance during the past Dot-com bubble, is currently being performed by NVIDIA and memory semiconductor companies. If this scenario holds true, investors should focus on the 'bottlenecks (shortages)' occurring within the AI value chain. The participant emphasized, "In 2025, GPUs, and in 2026, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) will play the role of leading stocks by causing price surges and supply shortages," adding, "Since the point where bottlenecks occur always moves, one must oversee that flow."

"The Last Stage is the Steepest"... Prepare for the Rotation of Leading Stocks

The second scenario is the perspective that 'the bubble burst is imminent.' The video mentioned that "the last stage of a bubble usually rises most steeply," explaining the phenomenon that appears when market mania reaches its peak. If a bubble burst is approaching, one must find new trends to replace specific leading stocks or unlisted companies whose corporate values have already risen significantly.

What is particularly noteworthy is the 'rotation of leading stocks.' The participant said, "As things progress, leading stocks are replaced," and stated that the key is to identify how the flow that started from AI infrastructure (power, telecommunications, etc.) moves. In conclusion, the core message of the video is that the current phase where AI bubble theories are being raised is a process where liquidity is concentrating into the specific field of the AI revolution, and investors must respond by tracking the points where supply shortages occur within the value chain until the bubble completely deflates.