Why Saudi Arabia Failed to Suppress the Houthis Despite Investing 100 Trillion Won in Defense: Rugged Terrain and a 'Gentleman's Agreement'

Despite Saudi Arabia mobilizing military power by investing massive defense expenditures, the background behind its failure to completely suppress the Houthi forces in Yemen lies in Yemen's unique topographical factors and the Houthis' independent military capabilities. Professor Park Hyun-do of the Sogang University Euro-MENA Institute appeared on the YouTube channel 'Understanding: All the Knowledge in the World' to analyze the conflict structure between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

Rugged Terrain and the Limits of Ground Warfare… Why Saudi Air Strikes Failed

Saudi Arabia has intervened in the Yemeni Civil War, mobilizing massive military spending and air power to conduct air strikes. However, air strikes alone had limits in forcing the Houthis to surrender. Professor Park explained that while Saudi Arabia judged it could break Yemen by advancing only 80km north from the Yemeni border, the actual terrain of Yemen is extremely rugged, creating a structure where significant damage could be sustained upon entry. Ultimately, in a situation where the deployment of ground forces is essential, the concern over damage in ground warfare due to the harsh terrain acted as a constraint on Saudi military operations. For these reasons, despite long-term air strikes, Saudi Arabia entered a truce in 2022.

Houthis Beyond Iran's Proxy, Possessing Independent Decision-Making and Military Power

The Houthis are often perceived as simple proxy forces receiving instructions from Iran, but they are actually an organization with considerable independence. Professor Park explained that while the Houthis receive support from Iran, Iran does not control their decision-making power. Rather than unconditionally following Iran's demands, the Houthis act according to their own interests, and sectarians-wise, they belong to a Shia branch that differs from Iran and Hezbollah.

In military terms, the Houthis are also demonstrating capabilities that go beyond the level of simple rebels. The Houthis possess long-range drone and missile attack capabilities, and while receiving support from Iran, they possess the capability to assemble parts and operate weapons independently. In particular, since the Houthis control major densely populated areas of Yemen and the coast of the Red Sea, they are evaluated as a force that is practically close to a single state.

Strategic Relationship Between the United States and the Houthis, Possibility of a 'Gentleman's Agreement' Aimed at Saudi Arabia

In the recent situation where Houthi attacks are pressuring Saudi oil exports and Red Sea logistics routes, analysis suggests that a kind of strategic relationship has formed between the United States and the Houthis. Professor Park explained that although the Houthis' slogans advocate anti-American, anti-Israel, and anti-Semitic stances, their actual operations show a pattern of not directly attacking the United States and Israel.

The video mentioned circumstances where the United States and the Houthis met in places such as Oman to reach a kind of 'gentleman's agreement' not to attack each other's specific points (such as the Port of Mocha). Instead of attacking the United States and Israel, the Houthis are taking a strategy of strengthening Iran's position and pressuring Saudi Arabia by attacking ports and ships that hinder Saudi oil exports. This coincides with the situation where the United States is trying to avoid direct conflict with the Houthis due to concerns over escalation, forming a complex international situation.