"Housing Prices in Seoul Outskirts are Rising Fiercely"... Gift-giving and Buying Spree Spreading Beyond Gangnam and Songpa to Nowon-Dobong-Gangbuk

The polarization of the Seoul real estate market and regional upward trends are showing complex patterns. While the Gangnam area is dominated by gift-giving centered on high-priced housing, the outskirts of Seoul have recently seen an increase in forms of gift-giving where funds are provided to children. As market trends appear differently by region, the response strategies of asset owners are also diversifying.

High-priced Gifts in Gangnam and the Upward Trend in Seoul Outskirts 'Nowon-Dobong-Gangbuk'

Recently, the movement of asset owners toward gift-giving has been clearly appearing in the real estate market. According to a video from the YouTube channel 'Finance with Toad Tax Accountant', the proportion of the Three Gangnam Districts (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa) among all gift-givings is overwhelming, reaching about 32%. The presenter analyzed that "even in situations where one must pay 1 to 2 billion won in gift tax while gifting apartments in the 3 to 4 billion won range, gift-giving continues," noting a strong tendency among asset owners to maintain household assets in anticipation of future house price increases.

In the case of the Gangnam area, Seocho-gu has recently shown a tendency for gift-giving to decrease, while Gangnam-gu and Songpa-gu are increasing, showing regional differences. On the other hand, in terms of recent growth rates, the movement of 'Nowon-Dobong-Gangbuk', an area in the outskirts of Seoul, is notable. According to what the presenter confirmed, the gift-giving growth rate in the Nowon-Dobong-Gangbuk area is approaching about 90.6%. This is interpreted as a reflection of demand to preserve household assets by gifting real estate directly to children rather than liquidating after selling, as house prices in the outskirts have recently risen.

In particular, cases where parents gift funds in the range of 500 to 600 million won to help children purchase homes ahead of marriage, etc., are also increasing. The presenter explained, "In a situation where bank loans are not being issued, if about 500 million won is gifted, the gift tax is at a level of about 80 to 90 million won, and if one utilizes deduction benefits or joint payment, it is manageable even with a salary, so accessibility is high." The analysis suggests that if support is received from both sides during marriage, nearly 300 million won in funds can be secured, creating favorable conditions for purchasing.

Apartment Prices in Seoul Outskirts Driven by Rising Sale Prices

One of the main reasons cited for the steady upward trend in house prices in the outskirts of Seoul is the 'rise in sale prices'. As the general sale prices of recent redevelopment and reconstruction complexes have risen sharply, a phenomenon is appearing where existing apartment prices are being pushed up.

The video mentioned that sale prices in outskirts areas, such as redevelopment complexes near Yeonsinnae Station, are approaching the 1.8 to 2 billion won range. The presenter explained, "There are even talks that it will be difficult to sell for under 2 billion won in the future," and noted that even if existing apartment prices remain around the 1.5 billion won level, there is a tendency for prices to be standardized upward as new construction sale prices rise. Currently, most areas except for the Three Gangnam Districts and Yongsan District are not subject to the price cap system for new apartments, and the situation where cooperatives set high sale prices to improve business feasibility is accelerating this trend. The presenter added, "From the perspective of a cooperative, it is advantageous to strike while the iron is hot and improve business feasibility by setting high general sale prices."

This trend is also leading to an upward trend in the northeastern region. Recently, house prices in northeastern areas such as Seongbuk-gu and Dongdaemun-gu have shown an upward trend, and this flow is spreading to the Nowon-Dobong-Gangbuk area. In particular, intermediate price range areas such as Seongbuk-gu, Seodaemun-gu, and Jung-gu rose by 0.4% in a single week. The presenter predicted, "Most apartments in the Han River Belt area are formed in the range between 1.5 billion and 2.5 billion won, and there is a possibility that these areas will move again."

Designation of Regulated Areas and the Persistence of the 'Balloon Effect'

Concerns have also been raised regarding the 'balloon effect', where demand concentrates in specific areas whenever the government announces real estate regulation policies. The presenter pointed out that even if the government designates regulated areas, it is difficult to avoid the phenomenon where demand spreads to nearby non-regulated areas.

In fact, non-regulated areas in the outskirts of Gyeonggi Province, such as Namyangju Dasan New Town, Manan-gu, Anyang, and Byeongjeom-gu, Hwaseong, are showing strong movement, which is appearing in conjunction with regional news such as the semiconductor cluster. The presenter mentioned the reactions of officials who said in the past when the government designated regulated areas, "Even though we set a large scope considering the dispersion effect, we did not know the balloon effect would appear," and emphasized that the direction of the balloon effect must be closely considered when designating regulations.

Additionally, it was mentioned that if movement starts in the Incheon area, the upward trend may spread to key areas in Incheon, including Songdo, and to leading apartment complexes in metropolitan cities such as Haeundae, Busan. The presenter explained, "The saying that Incheon is wriggling could mean it has gone almost to the end," citing the case of the Moon Jae-in government and explaining that when Incheon moves, key areas in metropolitan cities also tend to move at a similar time. The fact that leading apartments such as Namcheon Xi in Haeundae, Busan, are moving by recording over 1.8 billion won was also mentioned in this context.

Meanwhile, a cautious analysis was provided regarding the perspective of looking for factors that could cause the market to decline. The presenter diagnosed, "In a situation where real estate experts are saying house prices will rise, it is difficult to find factors for a decline other than the fact that current house prices are high." Also, regarding the government's land bank policy, they emphasized the importance of the government's active intervention and the establishment of a supply base through the active purchase of land or commercial real estate in the outskirts of Seoul, saying, "A policy is needed where the government actively purchases land to use as future supply resources."