Wegovy and Mounjaro Change the Industrial Map... Direct Hits from Gyms to Protein and Alcohol Markets

GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) class drugs, which are gaining attention as obesity treatments, are causing widespread changes across various industrial ecosystems, including fitness, food, and alcohol, beyond just the medical field. These drugs, represented by 'Wegovy' and 'Mounjaro', possess characteristics that control human appetite and impulses, signaling an 'industrial revolution' that changes consumption patterns themselves.

The 'Exercise Avoidance' Phenomenon Threatening Gym Revenue Structures

According to the video, the gym industry is facing a new phase due to the emergence of GLP-1 class drugs. In the past, it was common to combine exercise with weight loss, but demand is increasing to achieve weight control effects through medication without exercising. Citing survey data from PWC, it was explained that about 42% of drug users responded that they stopped exercising. While the remaining 58% responded that they exercise as usual or even harder, analysis suggests that the blow to gym operations could be larger than expected.

The revenue structure of a gym is a method where users pay a certain period's usage fee in advance, which is then operated over a long period. To maximize profits, a proper number of users must visit steadily; however, a blow occurs when users whose will to 'build their bodies through exercise' has weakened due to drug use depart. In particular, since gyms have high fixed costs for securing equipment and space, if 'light users' disappear and only a few 'heavy users' who are serious about exercise remain, the profitability relative to investment costs may deteriorate due to the structure.

According to the explanation in the video, gym operations have aspects similar to the revenue structure of mobile games. While 'heavy spenders' who generate high revenue are necessary, stable operation is possible only when 'light users' who use the service appropriately support them. However, if light users who intended to 'start exercising for the New Year' depart en masse due to drug use, the remaining users will all be people who are serious about exercise. In this case, from the gym's perspective, they face a situation where the investment costs, such as the space and equipment used, become too large relative to the number of users.

Surge in Protein Demand and Whey Protein Supply Shortage

The influence of the drugs extends to the food industry, especially the protein market. The video identified 'loss of muscle mass' as a common phenomenon experienced by GLP-1 class drug users. It is noted that users are showing a tendency to consume more protein than before to prevent muscle loss along with fat loss. This is leading to a protein drink craze in regions where the drugs are becoming popularized, such as the United States, and is even to the extent that the famous American smoothie brand Smoothie King is separately releasing 'GLP-1 category' drinks with increased protein content.

This surge in demand is causing an imbalance in the raw material market. Whey protein, a core ingredient of protein drinks, was previously treated as a byproduct of the cheese manufacturing process and used for feed at low prices. However, as the demand for protein products has exploded recently, a situation has arisen where supply cannot keep up with demand, and the presenter explained that this could be a factor in increasing protein drink prices in the long term. In particular, forecasts suggest that protein demand will increase further as the number of drug users grows.

Changes in Consumption Patterns Brought by Appetite and Impulse Suppression

The most powerful characteristic of GLP-1 drugs is that they control not only appetite but also fundamental human 'desires and impulses.' According to the video, the drugs are influencing the decrease in alcohol consumption to the extent that about one-fourth of drug users responded that they quit drinking entirely. This is because the appetite suppression mechanism also has the effect of controlling the craving for alcohol. This supports the view that GLP-1 drugs have influenced the overall trend of declining alcohol sales seen in recent years.

This phenomenon is not limited to food and alcohol but has the potential to spread to various industrial sectors based on impulsive human consumption. The perspective is that 'impulsive spending,' such as the luxury industry or the purchase of high-priced IT devices (graphics cards, game consoles, etc.), could decrease. The presenter added, "Many parts of modern industry run on human desire and impulse," and noted that it remains to be seen what kind of impact the control of desire through drugs will have on the overall consumption structure in the long term. The analysis suggests that as the drugs make humans like 'sages,' causing them to avoid irrational consumption, it could also affect the demand for product lines such as Nintendo, PlayStation, and high-performance graphics cards.