"Prices, Consumption Patterns, Polarization"... 3 Factors of the Self-Employed Crisis Analyzed by a 12-Year Veteran

Recently, voices claiming that "business is at an all-time low" are growing louder in the self-employment field. Beyond the simple impact of an economic recession, analyses suggest that a fundamental restructuring of the self-employment market is occurring as changes in prices, consumption patterns, and market structures intertwine.

According to a video from the YouTube channel 'Jayeongeop Diary', the first crisis facing self-employed individuals recently is 'uncontrollable cost increases'. In August 2026, consumer prices rose by 3.1% compared to the same month of the previous year, and the cost-of-living index rose by 3.2%. The problem is not just consumer prices, but that the cost burden on the self-employed is extreme. The participant in the video explained that "food ingredient prices surged in just one month," noting that between early July and early August, spinach rose by nearly 152%, cucumbers by 55%, zucchini by 47%, and lettuce by 42%. Combined with the burden of fixed costs such as labor, rent, and electricity, they are in a 'catch-22' situation where raising prices reduces customers, but maintaining prices makes it difficult to secure margins. In particular, as the Bank of Korea raised the base interest rate for two consecutive months in July and August, reaching 3%, a vicious cycle continues as consumers, feeling the burden of loan interest, close their wallets even further.

Changed Consumption Patterns, "The Way We Eat and Drink Has Changed"

The second crisis factor is that the lifestyle of consumers itself has changed. In the past, a vibrant dining-out culture existed, creating a structure where money circulated throughout the entire commercial district, but recently, the flow of consumption has shifted as the consumer base focusing on health management and self-development increases. The participant analyzed that "even in university areas, students do not drink alcohol as they used to," noting that money previously spent on eating and drinking is moving elsewhere, such as immersing in exercise like running or striving for weight management through obesity treatments (such as Wegovy).

The delivery market is also undergoing changes. The delivery market, which grew explosively during the COVID-19 period, has seen its profitability deteriorate due to high delivery platform fees and rising food ingredient costs. The participant pointed out a "vicious cycle where delivery food prices have risen, but the quality feels like it is dropping," explaining that a structure is being formed where shops that cannot withstand the fee burden reduce their delivery ratio or lower costs, subsequently being shunned by consumers.

Deepening Commercial District Polarization and 'Cannibalistic' Competition

Finally, the 'polarization' of the self-employment market is intensifying. In the past, there was a cyclical structure where new shops moved into the spots of closed ones, but recently, in stagnant commercial districts, a phenomenon of consecutive vacancies is appearing. On the other hand, there is a clear pattern of competitors recklessly entering specific commercial districts or industries where sales are being generated.

Using the example of low-cost coffee brands, the participant expressed concern that "as similar brands line up in places where sales are good, the revenue that one shop used to take is divided among multiple businesses." The analysis suggests that as competition concentrates in specific commercial districts, centered around industries with low entry barriers, a deformed structure is emerging where overall consumption decreases, but competition to secure profits actually becomes more intense. The participant diagnosed, "Now is not simply a period of poor business, but a process where the self-employment market is being restructured as consumer behavior and market structures change."