"AI Drives Real Economy Growth"... Expansion of Infrastructure Investment Offsets High Interest Rate Concerns

As U.S. tech stocks have recently rebounded, discussions are active regarding whether investment in artificial intelligence (AI) can lead real economic growth sufficient to offset the burdens of high interest rates and inflation. Since entering September, arguments have been raised among U.S. investors and Federal Reserve officials that the construction of AI data centers and power/telecommunications infrastructure will drive growth across the entire economy, much like capital investment during past industrialization periods.

"AI Investment is a Realm of Real Growth, Not Finance"... The Core of the Inflation Debate

Seo Byeong-su, a PB at Meritz Securities, is focusing on the theory of real economic growth caused by AI in relation to recent movements in U.S. tech stocks. Seo explained that since early September, the logic that AI will lead economic growth through productivity improvements has begun to emerge in the U.S. market. The key point is that this is not finance-centered growth where only asset prices rise, but rather a growth in the actual economic structure accompanied by data center construction and infrastructure establishment.

Seo mentioned that during periods of rapid real economic growth, such as in the 1970s and 1980s, high interest rates and inflation were not major problems. This was because, even in a high interest rate environment, the growth rate of the real economy was fast enough to handle them. His analysis suggests that if current AI investment is accompanied by the expansion of infrastructure such as data centers, roads, and telecommunications networks, it can create a real economic stimulus effect similar to the construction of factories centered on manufacturing in the past.

Growth Outlooks from Major Investors such as Cathie Wood and Bill Ackman

Various market perspectives supporting the AI growth theory also exist. According to the video, Cathie Wood argued that productivity innovation driven by AI could pull the long-term economic growth rate up from 6% to 15%, expressing the view that current inflation is not excessive when considering the economic growth this structural change will bring.

Investor Bill Ackman also emphasized the specificity of AI investment. He predicted that because the first-mover advantage and return on investment (ROI) through AI are very large, companies will not reduce AI investment even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. In other words, the logic is that interest rate hikes may not have the effect of suppressing investment, and instead, the movement to expand investment could trigger inflation.

Practical Verification of the Growth Theory through Corporate IR Materials

To verify whether this growth theory is merely academic speculation, Seo suggested a method of examining official statements and IR (Investor Relations) materials from companies. He emphasized that the contents disclosed by CEOs during conference calls or symposiums are responsible statements, and therefore, one must judge the actual expansion of investment through them.

In fact, recent movements of companies show a pattern where AI-related investment is spreading beyond the semiconductor sector into various stages such as energy, construction, and finance. Seo added that to confirm that AI investment is not merely limited to the rise of the stock market but is affecting the overall real economy by leading to a surge in power demand and infrastructure construction demand for building data centers, one must continuously monitor whether companies are making specific investments in funds and manpower.