Micron guidance points to a chip price peak as early as Q4 2026, while one panel member says rates could pull it forward

Professor Kim Kwang-seok said that, based on indicators such as Micron's guidance, semiconductor prices could cautiously be forecast to peak around the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. The comment came in a discussion that also argued the chip market is at an inflection point, shifting from price-driven growth (P) to volume-driven growth (Q).

The three-way discussion was carried by the YouTube channel The Man Who Explains the Economy (Kim Kwang-seok TV). Lee Hyeong-su, Jang Woo-jin and Kim Kwang-seok took part, discussing the semiconductor industry's cycle and outlook. AI infrastructure demand is strong, but the panel also raised the view that macroeconomic variables such as interest rates could bring forward the timing of the price peak.

Rates and Trump: a view that the peak could come sooner

The panelists differed on when prices will peak. Lee, identified in the report as a writer, expected that if the structure of rising volumes holds even as the rate of price increases slows, the peak could extend to around mid-2027.

Jang, identified as a chief executive, warned that the macro environment, particularly interest rates and political variables, could bring the peak forward. He said AI infrastructure investment is heavily capital expenditure (CAPEX) in nature, involving enormous sums, and is therefore very sensitive to rates. If market rates move faster than expected because of factors linked to former President Trump, Jang analyzed, infrastructure investment would slow and the mismatch between supply and demand could be resolved quickly. He raised the possibility that the price peak could move up to the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year.

From the era of P to the cycle of Q

Lee described the current tech cycle as a 10-year industrial revolution, with the asset-market cycle running about half that, or roughly five years. He said the asset cycle that began in 2023 could last five to six years, and that the market is now moving past the period when price (P) led gains into a "Q cycle" centered on volume (Q). He expected opportunities to remain through the first half of next year in terms of the asset cycle.

What sets this cycle apart, Lee said, is the nature of demand. Memory chips were once shaped by consumer products (B2C) such as smartphones and PCs, but data-center infrastructure demand from hyperscalers developing generative AI now leads the market. He added that a growing share of specialty, made-to-order products rather than general-purpose ones, such as HBM (high-bandwidth memory), is also changing the supply side from the past.

A weak first half-to-second half pattern, and the KOSPI puzzle

The panelists assessed that the chip market did well in the first half of this year on explosive growth in the AI market, liquidity and government policy, but went through a correction in the second half as liquidity receded and leverage disappeared. Kim offered one possible reason why the KOSPI in South Korea remains stuck in a range while the Nasdaq in the United States sets new highs: the market may already have priced in concerns about a price peak.

Source: original video (YouTube)