Houthis' Occupation of Perim Island and Saudi Arabia's Crisis: The Background of Conflict Surrounding the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Tensions are escalating in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic chokepoint connecting the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Recently, Houthi forces occupied Perim Island (Mayun Island), a key point in the Red Sea, posing a direct threat to Saudi Arabia's energy export routes.

Houthi's Occupation of Perim Island and the Crisis of Saudi Energy Routes

Recently, Houthi forces landed armed troops using boats to occupy Perim Island. It is reported that the troops guarding the island had withdrawn the previous day, resulting in a bloodless entry for the Houthis. Moving along the coast from mountainous areas, the Houthis successively seized the port of Mocha and the Dhubab area. These movements are drawing global attention as they are evaluated as having seized a strategic point of the strait connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

In this process, Saudi Arabia's energy export routes also suffered a blow. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which sends crude oil coming from the east to the western Red Sea, was attacked; according to explanations in the video, this strike was reportedly caused by a drone launched from Iraq, not by the Houthis. In particular, rather than a simple pipeline, an intermediate pumping station used to apply pressure for crude oil transport was precisely struck, leaving the repair period uncertain. Saudi Arabia has been exporting up to 5 million barrels of oil per day through the Bab-el-Mandeb to avoid a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but as even this route becomes precarious, a decisive crisis in Middle East energy supply has occurred.

Deepening Conflict Between Saudi Arabia and Houthis, the Background of the Shift from 'Ceasefire' to 'Attack'

The core of this situation is the conflict between the Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia. The Yemen Civil War, which has continued since 2022, has been in an ambiguous state with repeated cycles of ceasefires and engagements. The Houthis have accused Saudi Arabia of intervening in the Yemen Civil War to obstruct the establishment of their own governance base. In particular, the Houthis have previously rejected the conditions for sharing oil and gas sales profits proposed by the United Nations (UN).

The trigger for the rapid intensification of the conflict dates back to last July. As Saudi Arabia attacked the airport in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, the Houthi side judged this as the end of the ceasefire with Saudi Arabia and began to intensify their attacks. The Houthis claim that Saudi Arabia is obstructing them by supporting anti-Houthi forces within Yemen and have demanded compensation for Saudi Arabia's intervention.

Strengthening of Houthi Military Power and the Influence of International Affairs

The Houthis previously experienced great difficulties, such as the assassination of their political bureau leadership due to airstrikes by the United States and Israel (such as the Rough Rider Operation), but they have used this as an opportunity to show movements toward securing more precise strike capabilities. There were circumstances suggesting that Russia provided information on vessel operations passing through the Red Sea to the Houthis or considered supplying precision weapons, but it is known that the direct supply of Russian weapons was blocked due to strong warnings from Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, it appears that the Houthis have accumulated their own strike capabilities, such as drones and missiles, by receiving technical assistance from Iran.

Currently, while announcing the occupation of Perim Island, the Houthis are stating through SNS and other means that the navigation of all civilian vessels, including United States and Israel vessels, is safe. This is interpreted as a strategy to send a signal that they hold the throat of the Red Sea through attacks targeting Saudi Arabia, while avoiding a direct total war with the United States. In response, Saudi Arabia is continuing efforts to push back the Houthis by mobilizing air power to conduct approximately 150 sorties per day.