"Securing Over 200 Trillion Won in Excess Tax Revenue"... The Scale of Resources to be Invested in Government Housing Stability Policies and Market Changes

As the government declares housing stability, jobs, and people's finance as the three core social policies, attention is focused on the future direction of real estate and housing policies. Based on recent announcements through the Cabinet meeting, analyses suggest that the government has sufficient fiscal capacity to inject the secured excess tax revenue into housing policies.

The Reality of the 200 Trillion Won Excess Tax Revenue and the Housing Welfare Roadmap

According to the video, due to the increase in corporate tax payments from companies such as Jeonjanikseu (presumed to be Samsung Electronics) this year, an excess tax revenue of approximately 63 trillion won is expected to occur this year. In particular, it is predicted that the excess tax revenue will exceed 100 trillion won next year, so if this year and next year are combined, a positive resource scale of approximately 200 trillion won will be secured. This fiscal capacity serves as the basis for supporting the execution of the housing stability policies promoted by the government.

The housing welfare roadmap announced on September 22 is designed around public services. This roadmap aims to increase the supply of public housing to more than 2.5 million units by 2030. Considering that the public housing stock is at a level of approximately 2 million units as of the end of 2024, expanding the volume of public housing significantly over the next five years based on the secured 200 trillion won in resources is being discussed as a realistic scenario. Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to specific implementation plans, such as the method of introducing a model that allows for 20 years of residence.

Collapse of Non-Apartment Supply and the Phenomenon of Disfavoring Apartment Jeonse

As a result of analyzing housing supply data, a clear polarization between the apartment and non-apartment markets is appearing. Looking at the cumulative construction performance as of August, apartments are being maintained with 77,000 units under construction, but the supply of non-apartments is in a state of severe contraction. In the case of non-apartments, a supply level of 70,000 units per year should be achieved, but as of the cumulative total for August this year, it only reached the level of 15,000 units, showing a decrease of about 80% compared to the previous year.

The contraction of the Jeonse market is pointed out as the cause of this collapse in non-apartment supply. The analysis suggests that while Jeonse has played the role of provider financing, the supply itself has been cut off as non-apartment Jeonse finance failed to function due to issues such as Jeonse fraud. In response, the need to introduce normal financial programs, where non-apartment supply operators can raise funds through financial institutions and repay rental volumes over the long term, is being raised.

Acceleration of Monthly Rental Trend in the Seoul Apartment Rental Market

In the apartment market, a phenomenon of "disfavoring Jeonse" is observed, where monthly rent is chosen instead of Jeonse. The proportion of monthly rent for Seoul apartments averaged 42% over five years, but this year it rose to 52%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to last year (44%). This shows that a rapid change is occurring in the apartment market as well, unlike the continuous trend of monthly rentalization appearing in the non-apartment market.

This change is interpreted not as being due to the Jeonse fraud issue, but as a result reflecting the demand to convert Jeonse into monthly rent to utilize the remaining funds for investment rather than depositing the Jeonse deposit with the lessor in a high-interest rate environment. As cases increase where people choose monthly rent over Jeonse when renewing lease contracts and invest the remaining funds in stocks or other assets, a phase continues where Jeonse naturally decreases and the proportion of monthly rent increases in the apartment market.