SpaceX AI revenue surpasses space business, increasing Tesla merger possibility

SpaceX is undergoing a rapid reorganization as its AI business revenue has recently overtaken its space business, increasing the possibility of a merger with Tesla. This shift toward AI infrastructure could provide the "middle link" needed to combine SpaceX's capabilities with Tesla's robotics and autonomous driving technologies.

The business structure of SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is undergoing a rapid reorganization. As the revenue structure shifts from a focus on rocket launches and satellite communications toward artificial intelligence (AI), the possibility of a merger with Tesla is entering a new phase.

According to an analysis by Jeong Ui-hun, a researcher at the Yusin Investment & Securities Research Center, shared by The Man Who Explains the Economy (Kim Kwang-seok TV), the proportion of AI business revenue has recently surpassed that of the space business within SpaceX's total corporate revenue. This indicates that SpaceX is transforming beyond a simple space company into a core entity equipped with AI infrastructure. "The fact that the AI infrastructure sector in SpaceX's revenue has overtaken the space business shows that an absolute central axis called AI has been established," Jeong analyzed. "This change is a factor that actually increases the possibility of a merger with Tesla."

From space company to AI infrastructure company: SpaceX's structural change

Jeong explained that the future envisioned by Elon Musk is connected through a massive value chain called "Physical AI." This Physical AI value chain consists of infrastructure, models, AI services, and final products. Musk's companies are vertically integrating all of these stages.

Specifically, in the infrastructure sector, the construction of AI infrastructure through Terafab and SpaceX's vision for space data centers are intertwined with communication and power infrastructure via Starlink and Tesla Megapack. The AI model sector is handled by xAI, while the service sector is carried on by X (formerly Twitter), Grok, and Neuralink. Finally, in the product sector, Tesla aims for overwhelming market dominance with robots and autonomous vehicles.

Jeong pointed out that "there was likely a strategic judgment involving a merger with Tesla behind SpaceX's pursuit of an IPO." He recalled that when news of a SpaceX IPO was first reported in the United States last December, he believed the possibility was low because SpaceX had sufficient cash flow and no urgent reason to go public. However, his analysis suggests that the actual background for the IPO may include the possibility of a merger with Tesla.

While the link between the space industry and the electric vehicle industry appeared weak in the past, the analysis suggests that as SpaceX secures AI infrastructure capabilities, a practical "middle link" has been completed to combine with Tesla's robotics and autonomous driving technologies. "SpaceX will merge with AI first," Jeong added. "Through the second and third quarter results after the listing, the synergies being produced are becoming clearly evident."

Synergies from a merger: breaking boundaries of personnel and capital

If Musk's companies form a single massive empire through a merger rather than simple partnerships, powerful synergies are expected to arise both internally and externally. Jeong explained the benefits of a merger in terms of external credibility and internal efficiency.

Externally, business trust between the two companies can be maximized. Currently, even if they share a largest shareholder, they are separate legal entities, which leads to complex interests regarding cost burdens and breach of trust issues when dispatching personnel or sharing infrastructure. For example, if Tesla's autonomous driving technical personnel are dispatched to SpaceX, issues regarding the burden of costs may arise. However, if they become one company through a merger, the exchange of technical personnel becomes much smoother, and personnel and infrastructure can be shared without separate partnership agreements or acquisition procedures.

Efficiency in terms of capital is also key. Both Tesla and SpaceX are technology-driven growth companies that require massive capital investment. The limitations Tesla might face when building large-scale AI data centers (Terafab) can be overcome by combining it with SpaceX's cash flow from Starlink and AI business profits. "In a situation where macroeconomic uncertainties such as interest rate fluctuations exist, if the two companies merge and achieve economies of scale, their ability to secure funds will improve dramatically," Jeong predicted.

The gap between the real economy and capital markets: a market betting on future value

Elon Musk's actions have a massive impact on the market. Using Tesla as an example, Jeong explained the difference between the real economy (financial indicators) and the capital market (valuation). While the real economy looks at numbers on financial statements such as revenue, operating profit, and net asset value, the capital market looks at future values, which correspond to the "notes to financial statements," such as the composition of business sectors and market growth rates.

Comparing Hyundai Motor Company and Tesla, Hyundai Motor Company has higher revenue, but Tesla's market capitalization is overwhelming. This proves that the stock market bets on future growth potential rather than current numbers. Using Naver as an example, Jeong explained that despite Naver's revenue and operating profit being larger now than during the COVID-19 period, its stock price has fallen due to "the limits of expanding domestic market share." In other words, the market demands a future "view" for companies that need new breakthroughs.

Ultimately, Elon Musk's business model aims to build a massive ecosystem that connects from AI infrastructure to physical entities like robots and cars, moving beyond simple product sales. The change in SpaceX's revenue structure is interpreted as a signal that this grand blueprint is becoming a reality.

Source: original video (YouTube)