"AI Earnings are Real"... Professor Kim Kwang-seok: "Must Distinguish Between Capital Market Bubbles and Real Economy Growth"

Amid diverging views between the 'bubble theory' and the 'super cycle theory' surrounding the Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry, an analysis has emerged stating that AI technology is revolutionizing productivity in the real economy, and that the stock price trends in the capital market must be viewed separately from the growth trends of the real economy.

According to an interview video on Yonhap News TV from the channel The Man Who Explains the Economy (Kim Kwang-seok TV), the participant diagnosed that AI investment is driving powerful growth in the real economy beyond simple overheating in the asset market. The participant explained that AI is causing a 'productivity revolution' that maximizes output relative to input across all sectors, including image generation, law, finance, and accounting.

"AI Adoption Rate is Less Than 15%, Real Economy Growth is Just Beginning"

Regarding the current stage of the AI industry, the participant evaluated that "looking at the degree to which AI has been introduced across all industries by South Korean standards, it has not even reached 15%." He continued, emphasizing that "many experts, including engineering specialists, say AI has not even started yet," and that current discussions remain in the early stages where AI is being introduced across all industries to boost productivity.

In particular, he noted that AI is restructuring industrial frameworks. Beyond the existing distinction between manufacturing and service industries, the structure is changing into industries that create AI (Value Chain) and industries that utilize AI. Mentioning Manufacturing AX in the manufacturing sector, the participant also presented the possibility of gaining competitiveness in the design field, which previously relied on the United States, by advancing design capabilities through AI.

"Stock Prices are Volatile, but Earnings are Undeniably Real"

Regarding the AI bubble controversy in the capital market, he advised responding by separating the 'real economy' from the 'capital market.' The participant analyzed, "In terms of the real economy, it is not a bubble at all. Companies' earnings are undoubtedly continuing to increase," adding, "While earnings are real, stock prices fluctuate, forming bubbles or undergoing adjustment phases in the process of reflecting those earnings."

In other words, while earnings draw an upward curve to find an equilibrium point, stock prices show volatility, moving between bubble and undervalued zones. The participant added, "Since stock prices move as if reflecting the growth trend of earnings, when it feels too much like a bubble, it can be judged as an adjustment phase, and when the stock price is low relative to earnings, it can be judged as an undervalued zone."

Furthermore, he analyzed that the proportion of current AI investment contributing to national economic growth (GDP) is significant. Considering the scale of investment, including facility investment such as semiconductor plant investment, construction investment, and government super-body economic projects (power, semiconductors, small modular reactors, etc.), he predicted that the growth contribution of AI-related investment will be at least 3 percentage points or more.